Spatial Projection of Land Use and its Connection with Urban Ecology Spatial Planning in the Coastal City, Case Study in Makassar City, Indonesia

The arrangement of coastal ecological space in the coastal city area aims to ensure the sustainability of the system, the availability of local natural resources, environmental health and the presence of the coastal ecosystems. The lack of discipline in the supervision and implementation of spatial regulations resulted in inconsistencies between urban spatial planning and land use facts. This study aims to see the inconsistency between spatial planning of the city with the real conditions in the field so it can be used as an evaluation material to optimize the planning of the urban space in the future. This study used satellite image interpretation, spatial analysis, and projection analysis using markov cellular automata, as well as consistency evaluation for spatial planning policy. The results show that there has been a significant increase of open spaces during 2001-2015 and physical development was relatively spreading irregularly and indicated the urban sprawl phenomenon. There has been an open area deficits for the green open space in 2015-2031, such as integrated maritime, ports, and warehousing zones. Several islands in Makassar City are predicted to have their built-up areas decreased, especially in Lanjukang Island, Langkai Island, Kodingareng Lompo Island, Bone Tambung Island, Kodingareng Keke Island and Samalona Island. Meanwhile, the increase of the built up area is predicted to occur in Lumu Island, Barrang Caddi Island, Barrang Lompo Island, Lae-lae Island, and Kayangan Island. The land cover is caused by the human activities. Many land conversions do not comply with the provision of percentage of green open space allocation in the integrated strategic areas, established in the spatial plan. Thus, have the potential of conflict in the spatial plan of marine and small islands in Makassar City.