Assessment of dynamic water yield using multi scenario of LULC in Cisadane Watershed West Java, Indonesia

Uncontrolled economic development often leads to land degradation, a decline in ecosystem services, and negative impacts on community welfare. This study employs water yield (WY) modeling as a method for environmental management, aiming to provide a comprehensive understanding of the relationship between Land Use Land Cover (LULC), Land Use Intensity (LUI), and WY to support sustainable natural resource management in the Cisadane Watershed, Indonesia. The objectives include: (1) analyzing changes in WY for 2010, 2015, and 2021; (2) predicting WY for 2030 and 2050 under two scenarios—Business as Usual (BAU) and Protected Forest Area (PFA); (3) assessing the impacts of LULC and climate change on WY; and (4) exploring the relationship between LUI and WY. The Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model calculates actual and predicted WY conditions, while the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) analyzes the LULC WY relationship. Results indicate that the annual WY in 2021 was 215.8 × 108 m³, reflecting a 30.42% increase from 2010. Predictions show an increasing trend in WY under both scenarios for 2030 and 2050 with different magnitudes. Rainfall contributes 88.99% more dominantly to WY than LULC. Additionally, around 50% of districts exhibited unbalanced coordination between LUI and WY in 2010 and 2020. This study reveals the importance of ESs in sustainable watershed management amidst increasing demand for natural resources due to population growth