Optimizing land use for carbon neutrality: A scenario analysis in the Jakarta metropolitan area

This study developed a model for optimizing land use for carbon neutrality, integrating land use demand forecasting and spatial allocation models to systematically analyze land use changes in the Jakarta metropolitan area. The model incorporated carbon dioxide (CO2) emission constraints to direct the structural optimization and spatial distribution of land use, with the aim of minimizing overall CO2 emissions. Using a combination of mixed-integer programming, discrete choice models, and cellular automata (CA), the model effectively simulated land use dynamics, considering various spatial factors and constraints. The model’s accuracy was validated through numerical simulations, revealing a high degree of alignment with observed data. Scenario simulations identified the significant impacts of different development strategies on land use patterns and CO2 emissions. The largest increase in CO2 emissions was observed under the high economic development scenario due to rapid urbanization and industrialization, whereas the low-carbon development scenario resulted in a slower growth in emissions, highlighting the effectiveness of sustainable land use strategies. The findings highlight the importance of integrating land use models with carbon emission assessments to support sustainable development and achieve carbon neutrality goals in rapidly urbanizing regions such as Jakarta.