The impact of climate change on the future distribution of priority crop wild relatives in Indonesia and implications for conservation planning

Wiguna, Rahman and Brehm, Joana Magos and Maxted, Nigel (2023) The impact of climate change on the future distribution of priority crop wild relatives in Indonesia and implications for conservation planning. Journal for Nature Conservation, 73. p. 126368. ISSN 1617-1381

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Abstract

The analysis of climate change impact is essential to include in conservation planning of crop wild relatives (CWR) to provide the guideline for adequate long-term protection under unpredictable future environmental conditions. These resources play an important role in sustaining the future of food security, but the evidence shows that they are threatened by climate change. The current analyses show that five taxa were predicted to have contraction of more than 30 % of their current ranges: Artocarpus sepicanus (based on RCP 4.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario and RCP 8.5 in no dispersal scenario by 2050), Ficus oleifolia (RCP 4.5 5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2080), Cocos nucifera and Dioscorea alata (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050), and Ficus chartacea (RCP 8.5 in both no dispersal and unlimited dispersal scenario by 2050 and 2080). It shows that the climate change impact is species-specific. Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) of greenhouse gas (GHG) emission and dispersal scenarios influence the prediction models, and the actual future distribution range of species falls in between those scenarios. Climate refugia, holdout populations, and non-analogue community assemblages were identified based on the Protected Areas (PAs) network. PAs capacity is considered an important element in implementing a conservation strategy for the priority CWR. In areas where PAs are isolated and have less possibility to build corridors to connect each other, such as in Java, unlimited dispersal scenarios are unlikely to be achieved and assisted dispersal is suggested. The holdout populations should be the priority target for the ex situ collection. Therefore, by considering the climate refugia, PAs capacity and holdout populations, the goal of keeping high genetic variations for the long-term conservation of CWR in Indonesia can be achieved.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Validated by Sri Wulan
Uncontrolled Keywords: Climate change, Climate refugia, Crop Wild Relatives (CWR), Distribution range shift, Holdouts Protected areas, Plant distribution, Preservation
Subjects: Medicine & Biology > Botany
Medicine & Biology > Ecology
Divisions: OR_Hayati_dan_Lingkungan > Konservasi_Tumbuhan_Kebun_Raya_dan_Kehutanan
Depositing User: - Patmiati -
Date Deposited: 05 Mar 2024 04:10
Last Modified: 05 Mar 2024 04:10
URI: https://karya.brin.go.id/id/eprint/31866

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