Tendency for climate-variability-driven rise in sea level detected in the altimeter era in the marine waters of Aceh, Indonesia

Long-term sea level rise (SLR) leads to increasing frequency in overtopping events resulting from polar ice liquefaction triggered by rising global temperatures. Aceh province is directly bordered by the Indian Ocean, and is subject to the influence of ocean–atmosphere interactions which have a role in triggering temperature and sea level anomalies. Elevated sea level is possibly caused by temperature induced water mass redistributions. This study aimed to prove that the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El-Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) had an influence on sea level change in Aceh waters over the six years 2009–2015. Sea level anomaly (SLA) was identified using Jason-2 satellite data for the 2009–2015 period, to enable the mathematical prediction of SLR rate for further years. We found that SLR was approximately 0.0095 mm/year with an upward trend during the six years of observation. Overall, negative mode of IOD and positive phase of ENSO tend to trigger anomalies of sea level at certain times, and have a stronger influence on increasing SLA and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) which takes place in a ‘see-saw’ fashion. Over the period of observation, the strongest evidence of IOD correlated SLA, ENSO-correlated SLA and SSTA-correlated SLA were identified in second transitional seasons, with more than 50% of R2 value. The upward trend in SLA is influenced by climatic factors that successively control ocean–atmosphere interactions in Aceh’s marine waters.