Assessment of future environmental carrying capacity in the Mamminasata area, Indonesia, derived from regional census and land cover

Environmental carrying capacity is central to the sustainable development concept that has been applied in spatial planning programs by the Government of Indonesia. These programs focus on population needs based on existing conditions and projected population growth. This study predicted the future environmental carrying capacity of the region called Mamminasata (Makassar City, Maros, Sungguminasa and Takalar Regencies) to 2031 through statistical calculation. Census data from local government agencies and land cover prediction data from previous studies were used. The respective results for demographic, residential, and protected function carrying capacities by 2031 were 0.104 (good), 6.297 (good), and 0.520 (good but requiring attention to prevent further decline). Projected agricultural carrying capacity in 2031 would leave about 45% of the agricultural land now used for food crops. The results of this research can assist sustainable development in Mamminasata.